In the bumper week for Russian foreign policy just gone, we’ve seen war in Ukraine de-escalate and a new intervention in Syria—neither of which were particularly implied in President, Vladimir Putin’s speech to the UN General Assembly on Monday. Indeed, according to Samuel Greene, “it doesn’t really matter what [Putin] says.” Most of what we know derives from paying attention […]
June 23, 2015
But a few weeks after the Riga Summit of EU and Eastern Partnership members quietly assembled and published its tentatively worded declaration, it is worth examining what Europe must really do to produce a peaceful neighbourhood. Reticence is understandable—diplomacy over Ukraine is ongoing, and has been demonstrably sensitive to ill-judged pronouncements. Accordingly, this post will not call for an escalation […]
February 25, 2015
With news of another “planned and organised” retreat, this time from the strategic hotspot of Debaltseve, it’s time for a reappraisal of the conflict raging in Eastern Ukraine. What follows is a summary of events, a survey of the relevant actors’ interests, activities, and likely courses of action, and a suitably damning prognosis for where this […]
September 21, 2014
Ukraine’s recent signing of the EU Association Agreement had all the hallmarks of a great political triumph—from President Petro Poroshenko’s “Slava Ukrayini!” (Glory to Ukraine) on Twitter, to the bouts of anthem-singing in Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, every impression that Ukraine had finally prevailed in its year-long political crisis was given. In reality, however, […]
July 20, 2014
The seemingly unstoppable march of ISIS/ISIL (now the Islamic State) through much of Iraq and some of Syria has quickly rekindled the vociferous debate surrounding the invasion of 2003. While today’s crisis is the product of many factors, the war in Iraq and its subsequent management not only predestined this conflict, but foreclosed any potential […]
June 4, 2014
Whether the Crimean crisis heralds a new era of international relations (or not), it has clearly been a pivotal moment in Russia’s relationship with the West. The world over balances of power are shifting, and though the United States remains unrivalled in sheer power, close to the borders of rising China and the increasingly-assertive Russia […]
March 12, 2014
With the EU-US alliance’s imposition of heavy sanctions on Russia over its de facto annexation of Crimea, the world is now looking to Russia’s perceived long-term strategic ally China to deliver a breakthrough in the diplomatic deadlock that has emerged between Putin and the West. While many analysts were expecting China to side with Russia on account […]
March 2, 2014
Predictions regarding Ukraine’s future following a Russian invasion (in all but name) abound, and while almost all expect bloodshed, some go as far as to predict the forthcoming apocalypse. Amidst such exclamations there have been few moderate voices, Stephen Walt and Medhi Hassan represent an inconspicuous minority. But, if one is to forgive the generalisation that most […]
March 1, 2014
Over the past four or so months, Ukraine has witnessed protest and rioting that dwarfs its 2004 Orange Revolution in every respect. Beginning as a protest against what was seen as undue Russian influence in Ukraine’s last-minute withdrawal from an Association Agreement with the European Union, this volte-face in favour of closer Russian association soon came […]
February 3, 2014
On the 29th of December, at 12:40 Moscow Time, an explosion gutted the entrance to Volgograd’s central train station leaving eighteen dead and forty-four injured. The explosion was recorded on CCTV, the shockwave rocking the camera while those civilians visible scatter from the blast. The very next morning a trolleybus erupted in the Dzerzhinsky district, killing […]
October 5, 2015
0